Think It’s Better To Wait for a Recession Before You Move? Think Again.

I’m noticing that fears of a recession are being expressed in headlines of late; and if you’re thinking about buying or selling sometime soon, that may leave you wondering if you should reconsider the timing of your move. So let’s talk about it…

A recent survey by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) shows 68% of people are delaying plans to buy or sell due to economic uncertainty.

But it may not be for the reason you think. Not everyone is holding off because they’re worried. Some buyers are waiting because they’re hopeful. According to Realtor.com:

“In 2025Q1, 3 in 10 (29.8% of) surveyed homebuyers said a recession would make them at least somewhat more likely to purchase a home . . . This reflects a common dynamic where some buyers see a downturn as an opportunity. If the economy enters a recession, the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate activity, potentially putting downward pressure on mortgage rates and easing affordability concerns. As a result, buyers—especially those with limited down payments—might view a recession as a more favorable time to enter the market.”

And there’s some truth to the idea that a recession could bring about lower mortgage rates. History shows mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. That’s not guaranteed – but it is a common pattern. Looking at data from the last six recessions, you can see mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

But here’s what those buyers may not be considering. Many of those hopeful buyers are assuming something else will happen too – that home prices will drop. And that’s where history tells a different story.

According to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices went up in four of the last six recessions (see graph below):

So, while many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008, that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because there’s still a long-standing inventory deficit, even as the number of homes on the market is rising.

Since prices tend to stay on whatever path they’re already on, know this: prices are still holding steady or rising in most metros, although at a much slower pace. So, a big drop isn’t likely. As Robert Frick, Corporate Economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, explains:

“Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point . . .”

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting for a recession to make your move, it’s important to understand what really happens during one – and what likely won’t. Lower mortgage rates could be on the table. But lower home prices? That’s far less likely.

Don’t wait for a market that may never come. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, connect with an agent to talk through what today’s economy really means for you – and make a smart plan that works in your favor, regardless of what the headlines say.

Want to dive deeper into this subject? I’m just a call, text, or email away!

Chad Meier | Realtor ® Licensed Oregon Broker | Living Room Realty | 503.709.9600 | dcmeier@gmail.com

Chad Meier

Broker | OR

He/Him

Hello, I’m Chad: Licensed Real Estate Broker, native Oregonian, photography aficionado, lover of old houses, friend to all animals, and powered by analytical data. As a member of the National, Oregon and Portland Metropolitan Associations of REALTORS®, I'm proud that my profession allows me to use the tools I've acquired over the past 20+ years (client advocacy, sales & marketing, conflict resolution, et al.) to help people on a daily basis. Bottom line… I love the work! Through personal experience, I understand that buying or selling a home is more than just a business transaction; In fact, it can often be a life changing event! This is why I’m dedicated to providing exceptional service for my clients when it’s time for them to make their move. On the listing side; I believe that every home, no matter how modest or grand, deserves to make the best possible first impression on a would-be buyer. This is why I’m aligned with our area's preeminent independent real estate brokerage (Living Room Realty) to offer every property the most compelling & relevant marketing available. It also means that I’ll never represent your home online with a smartphone picture ;^) On the buying side; I personally work with every client - no handing you off to a junior team member of a team - to ensure that we work toward your goals together and don’t fall prey to some of the pitfalls that buyers can face in today's heavily weighted market. In short, I can help you win! Above all else, I pledge to be a strong advocate for my client’s interests and promise to work relentlessly to help them achieve their real estate goals. After all, I believe that if you’re not left with an amazing experience, I haven’t done my job. Speaking personally, I’ve been connected to this great city and its surrounding areas since childhood. Most recently, my family (wife Shawn, son Jakob, mother Glenna, and mutts Juno & Dizzy) have lived in the vibrant Sellwood-Moreland neighborhood for the past 14 years. When not at my desk or in the field helping clients, you’ll likely find me trying to capture a compelling scene behind my camera lens, playing basketball wherever I can find a pickup game, or combining these two passions by photographing my son’s high school basketball team in action (GO WARRIORS!). And on occasion, you may even find me at any number of our city's finer dining establishments, searching high and low for a bartender who knows the recipe for a perfect Roman Holiday ;^) Whether you have a plan to buy or sell (or simply need to develop one), please feel free to contact me. I look forward to understanding your goals and helping you achieve them! I can be reached at 503-709-9600 -or- Chad@PortlandHomeBase.com

Read More

• T: 503-709-9600
• F: 503-961-8224
• dcmeier@gmail.com