By Chad Meier, October 5, 2025
For quite some time now, many would-be homebuyers have been sitting on the sidelines, convinced that patience is their ticket to a better deal. The thinking goes something like this: “If I just wait a little longer, mortgage rates will drop, and then I’ll be able to afford more house for the same monthly payment.” It’s a tempting strategy – but one that history suggests rarely plays out the way people expect.
The Rate Drop Mirage. Headlines and market analysts have been buzzing with the same prediction since the beginning of 2025: mortgage interest rates, hovering around 6.5% lately (well above the pandemic-era lows) might slip down to around the 5.5% mark (the so-called “magic number” where buyer demand could kick back into high gear).
But here’s the catch; Lower rates don’t just make mortgages cheaper. They also tend to fuel higher home prices. In other words, the very moment buyers think they’re getting a break on interest rates, the cost of the homes they want may jump right back up out of reach.
A Game of Musical Chairs. Let’s picture a pair of first-time buyers who’ve been diligently saving for the past two years. They’ve been waiting, hoping & strategizing; just sure that once rates dip, they’ll finally pounce on their dream home. But what happens if/when the Federal Reserve makes that move? Suddenly, thousands of other buyers will likely rush back into the market at the same time. The chairs are limited, and the music just went deadly quiet. Now, instead of finding a deal, our buyers may end up losing out (again & again) to a crowded field of competitors.
It’s the same cycle we watched unfold from 2020 to 2022, when falling rates and cheap money caused prices to skyrocket at a pace few had imagined possible!
The Payment Reality Check. Here’s something many buyers don’t conceptualize:
A $500,000 home at a 6.5% interest rate with 20% down…
…has a monthly payment nearly identical to a $550,000 home at a 5.5% interest rate with the same 20% down.
As illustrated above, waiting for that magical 1% drop in rates may not actually make your monthly budget any friendlier, because the home you want could suddenly cost tens of thousands more.
The real takeaway for buyers should be this; You may be able to refinance your mortgage to a better deal if rates do go down, but you can’t ever renegotiate the price you paid for that home! If you’re serious about buying, waiting for the “perfect” interest rate may cost you more in the long run, both in dollars and in opportunities lost. The smarter move? Start shopping with intention today, while inventory is still available and competition hasn’t yet surged back to full force.
The Seller’s Side of the Equation. So what about sellers longing for the glory days of multiple offers and bidding wars? Unless they’re downsizing to a less expensive property or moving into a rental, they’re subject to the exact same forces once they re-enter the market as buyers. Yes, they might sell high, but they’ll also buy high – often erasing the gains they thought they made.
The bottom line; Sellers need to take a hard look at what their goals are. Those who are downsizing or simply wanting to cash out their chips might actually be well served to wait until the next boom (whenever that might occur). Conversely, those looking to upsize or move into an area where the real estate market is even stronger might be well advised to look at both sides of the process and likely get moving before prices start to shoot up again.
It is said that timing the market is the province of kings and fools. They also say that in real estate, the best time to act is rarely tomorrow. In any case, waiting could end up being the costliest move buyers or sellers ever make!
Chad Meier
Broker | OR
He/Him
Hello, I’m Chad: Licensed Real Estate Broker, native Oregonian, photography aficionado, lover of old houses, friend to all animals, and powered by analytical data.
As a member of the National, Oregon and Portland Metropolitan Associations of REALTORS®, I'm proud that my profession allows me to use the tools I've acquired over the past 20+ years (client advocacy, sales & marketing, conflict resolution, et al.) to help people on a daily basis. Bottom line… I love the work!
Through personal experience, I understand that buying or selling a home is more than just a business transaction; In fact, it can often be a life changing event! This is why I’m dedicated to providing exceptional service for my clients when it’s time for them to make their move.
On the listing side; I believe that every home, no matter how modest or grand, deserves to make the best possible first impression on a would-be buyer. This is why I’m aligned with our area's preeminent independent real estate brokerage (Living Room Realty) to offer every property the most compelling & relevant marketing available. It also means that I’ll never represent your home online with a smartphone picture ;^)
On the buying side; I personally work with every client - no handing you off to a junior team member of a team - to ensure that we work toward your goals together and don’t fall prey to some of the pitfalls that buyers can face in today's heavily weighted market. In short, I can help you win!
Above all else, I pledge to be a strong advocate for my client’s interests and promise to work relentlessly to help them achieve their real estate goals. After all, I believe that if you’re not left with an amazing experience, I haven’t done my job.
Speaking personally, I’ve been connected to this great city and its surrounding areas since childhood. Most recently, my family (wife Shawn, son Jakob, mother Glenna, and mutts Juno & Dizzy) have lived in the vibrant Sellwood-Moreland neighborhood for the past 14 years. When not at my desk or in the field helping clients, you’ll likely find me trying to capture a compelling scene behind my camera lens, playing basketball wherever I can find a pickup game, or combining these two passions by photographing my son’s high school basketball team in action (GO WARRIORS!). And on occasion, you may even find me at any number of our city's finer dining establishments, searching high and low for a bartender who knows the recipe for a perfect Roman Holiday ;^)
Whether you have a plan to buy or sell (or simply need to develop one), please feel free to contact me. I look forward to understanding your goals and helping you achieve them!
I can be reached at 503-709-9600 -or- Chad@PortlandHomeBase.com
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503-961-8224