THIS MOMENT IN PORTLAND REAL ESTATE

The Fall real estate season kinda landed with thud this year. Activity did pick up after Labor Day, but it never really took off like it often does in September. What does that look like? Hot new listings get some activity out of the gate, but it takes a week or two for a single offer to develop. Properties with any issues (location, condition, price) tend to languish and perhaps do several price reductions to get any traction. There are some outliers that get 2 or 3 offers in the first weekend; for years this was the rule…currently it is the exception.

Buyers have been able to reap the rewards of this mostly in the form of concessions for repairs/rate buy-downs. As a whole, prices have not come down significantly, but on any individual property…you might be able to get a good deal. Today there is a good bit of inventory out there, but some of it is junk and has been picked over pretty hard.

The truthiness of these statements does vary depending on which price point you are looking at. The block of buyers that has benefited the most this year are first timers. Competition is still out there, but it is a fraction of what it has been for the past decade. Sure, the monthly payment stinks (for now at least), but they are in and can start enjoying the upsides of home ownership.

Rates were bad in July (upper-6% to lower-7%), things got progressively worse into late October (when we touched the sun at 8%) and in the past few weeks things got better pretty dramatically (earlier this week lenders were quoting just over 7%). Still not great, but finally trending in the right direction. The rates matter a lot, but I would argue that buyer sentiment matters even more. When rates shift like this it takes a few weeks/months for buyers to re-engage with the market. IF rates continue to move in the right direction AND a large group of buyers choose to jump back into the search in January, we could be right back into multiple offer territory in early 2024.

I’ve sat through several economics seminars this year and predictions have been all over the map with various degrees of accuracy. There is however one really good nugget that I picked up a few months ago: The Federal Reserve is supposed to be non-partisan. In election years, to display their neutrality, they tend to avoid making any large adjustments up/down once we get into the election season proper. In theory, whatever rates we are looking at in Q1 of 2024 could be the rate through November. I’m not going to hang my hat on this…but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

That is the 30,000 ft view. If you’d like the hear the more nuanced version…give me a call!!

Drew Burchette

Principal Broker | OR

I arrived in the real estate business over a decade ago and have since helped scores of people buy and sell their homes. The groundswell that I created in my practice is rooted in the relationships that I have nurtured over the years. My style is educational, and I see myself as the coach and leader of your real estate transaction. My coaching is geared towards empowering you to make informed decisions that will lead to your best possible outcome. I excel at asking the questions that get to the heart of the matter which in turn enables a smooth sale process. Away from the office I am passionate about so many things, but it all begins and ends with my family. My boys are both in elementary school and parenting is an ongoing challenge and joy for my wife and I. We love to travel around Oregon, the East Coast, Mexico and beyond. My passion for surfing, kiteboarding, and fishing help to keep me grounded in life. Read more reviews

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